##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors on Indonesia's international trade. The variables in this study are trade values, exchange rates, exports, imports, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Gross Domestic Income (GDP), and foreign investment (FDI). The method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM method is used in the analysis of long- and short-term relationships. The relationship studied is between the independent and dependent variables in the time series data. To find out the long-term relationship in research, researchers must analyze through the cointegration equation on the VECM test results. The data used in this study is time series data for 1991-2020 taken from World Development Indicators and the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Based on the results of the short-term analysis of the GFCF variable, imports and exports have no effect on the value of trade in Indonesia. While the FDI, GDP and import variables have a significant effect on the value of trade. In the long term, the variables of exchange rates, imports, GFCF, and FDI have a positive and significant effect on the value of trade in Indonesia.

References

  1. Africano, A. P., & Magalhães, M. (2005). FDI and Trade in Portugal: a gravity analysis. Research Work in Progress, 174, 1-24.
     Google Scholar
  2. Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.
     Google Scholar
  3. Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2017). Analisis Regresi Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi Dan Dilengkapi Aplikasi SPSS Dan Eviews. Jakarta: Rajawali Press.
     Google Scholar
  4. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Economica, 55, 251-256. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
     Google Scholar
  5. Gujarati, D. N. (2021). Essentials of econometrics. Sage Publications.
     Google Scholar
  6. Heckscher, E. F. (1919). Utrikeshandelns verkan på inkomstfördelningen. Några teoretiska grundlinjer. Ekonomisk tidskrift, 1-32.
     Google Scholar
  7. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
     Google Scholar
  8. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration--with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
     Google Scholar
  9. Ma’in, M., & Isa, S. S. M. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Malaysia. Advances in Business Research International Journal, 6(1), 25-34.
     Google Scholar
  10. Maliszewska, M., Mattoo, A., & Van Der Mensbrugghe, D. (2020). The potential impact of COVID-19 on GDP and trade: A preliminary assessment. World Bank policy research paper, (9211).
     Google Scholar
  11. Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Principles of economics. Cengage Learning.
     Google Scholar
  12. Manoharan, E., & Vanitha, D. S. (2020). The Effect of Financial Structure and Economic Growth: An Empirical Approach. International Journal of Management, 11(5).
     Google Scholar
  13. Ng, Y. L., Har, W. M., & Tan, G. M. (2008). Real exchange rate and trade balance relationship: An empirical study on Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Management, 3(8), 130-137.
     Google Scholar
  14. Nguyen, H. H. (2020). Impact of foreign direct investment and international trade on economic growth: Empirical study in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(3), 323-331.
     Google Scholar
  15. Nicita, A. (2013). Exchange rates, international trade, and trade policies. International Economics, 135, 47-61.
     Google Scholar
  16. Nopirin, P. D. (1987). Ekonomi Moneter. BPFE.
     Google Scholar
  17. Ohlin, B. (1935). Economic Recovery and Labour Market Problems in Sweden: I. Int'l Lab. Rev., 31, 498.
     Google Scholar
  18. Paul, J., & Feliciano-Cestero, M. M. (2021). Five decades of research on foreign direct investment by MNEs: An overview and research agenda. Journal of business research, 124, 800-812.
     Google Scholar
  19. Tanoe, V. (2021). Analysis of Net Trade, FDI and GDP Growth Using Cointegration, VECM, Granger Causality and a Regression Approach: A Case Study of Sub-Saharan African Region. International Journal of African Studies, 1(2), 10-20.
     Google Scholar
  20. Zafar, A. (2007). The growing relationship between China and Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic, trade, investment, and aid links. The World Bank Research Observer, 22(1), 103-130.
     Google Scholar
  21. Zou, X. (2018). VECM model analysis of carbon emissions, GDP, and international crude oil prices. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society.
     Google Scholar